Shenzhen Airport (000089): Greater Bay Area plans to accelerate capacity expansion and double-wheel drive revenue continues to grow

Shenzhen Airport (000089): Greater Bay Area plans to accelerate capacity expansion and double-wheel drive revenue continues to grow

Key points of investment: The aviation industry is in the ascendant, and consumption upgrades stimulate development vitality.

With the continuous advancement of consumption upgrade, China’s civil aviation has experienced a rapid growth period as the main externalization performance.

According to IATA calculations, the per capita opportunity ratio and the per capita GDP show a positive correlation.

With the continuous improvement of the per capita GDP level and the continuous upgrading of residents’ consumption levels, the per capita opportunity ratio will gradually approach, and there is huge room for growth in aviation demand.

The planning of the Greater Bay Area was officially launched, and the aviation industry was in urgent need of secondary development.

The Greater Bay Area is strategically located with great potential for aviation development.

The Greater Bay Area can fly to places where nearly half of the world’s population live within five hours, overlapping parts of the Greater Bay Area’s premier international and regional aviation center.

Affected by the development of airports, the large aviation demand generated by the rapid growth of the Greater Bay Area and the constant expansion of the airport’s fixed load limit are prominent.

In the regional competition, compared with Hong Kong Airport, Shenzhen Airport has the advantage of late development, and will gradually welcome the good in the future.

Shenzhen Airport continued to benefit, and the revenue “double wheels” advanced at a high speed.

Shenzhen Airport is at the beginning of the airport development cycle, and the airport’s non-flight revenue has begun to start. Due to the superimposed effect of strong demand and phased capacity transfer, aviation revenue immediately began to show a nearly linear growth trend, in which the international flight ratio showed an index.Style continues to rise.

Shenzhen Airport’s capacity is maximized, and the remaining part of the capacity will be released at any time. With the large number of future infrastructure implementations, the airport’s throughput will soon increase significantly.

In the non-airline business, the duty-free business is the most important business form of the hub airport. The tax exemption projects won by the recent exemption will significantly increase the percentage of deduction points. In the future, the rapid growth of international passengers will increase revenue and performance.

Investment suggestion: The landing of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area stimulates Shenzhen Airport to usher in a burst of international passenger growth. Under the conditions of regional airport throughput, the growth rate of international passengers will remain above 20% for a long time.It is about to expire, the sales commission rate is expected to increase to close to Shanghai Airport, tax-free income will maintain rapid growth until 2020, and the overall performance will usher in an explosive period.

We forecast net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2021.

56西安耍耍网 billion, 9.

5.9 billion and 12.

4.0 billion, corresponding to the current PE is 24 times, 19 times and 15 times.

Compared with the growth of Shanghai Airport’s performance, Shenzhen Airport will welcome Davis’ double-click process with the increase in tax-free income. As the performance improves, the hub continues to improve. At present, it is estimated that it has surpassed the PE hub 28X.grade.

Risk warning: Tax-exempt income is less than expected, and international passenger growth is slower than expected due to the diversion of Hong Kong