Orient Securities (600958) Comment: Asset Management Business Makes Another Success, Waiting for 19 Years of Performance Elastic Performance
Event: The company disclosed its 2018 annual report and realized operating income of 103.
0 billion, a decrease of 2 previously.
2%, achieving net profit of return to mother 12.
3 billion, down 65 previously.
4%, performance is in line with expectations.
The increase in the company’s operating income was much smaller than the net profit attributable to mothers, mainly due to the recording of commodity trading income.
800 million, an annual increase of 764%.
The number of companies reported has a nominal average ROE of 2.
37%, a decline of 6 per year.
25pct, the company’s net assets attributable to its parent at the end of the reporting period was 517.
400 million, down 2 from the end of last year.
From the perspective of income structure, excluding commodity trading income, corporate brokerage, investment banking, asset management, index, and self-employed business accounted for 20 respectively.
2%, asset management business income contributed the most, self-employed revenue accounted for the smallest.
The signboard asset management business achieved another success, with active management accounting for 98%.
The scale of asset management at the end of the period was 200 billion yuan, a decline of more than 6%.
6%, of which the scale of active management is 1971.
400 million, down 6 every year.
2%, accounting for 98.
5%, increase by 0 every year.
From the perspective of asset management business structure, the scale of collective, 武汉夜网论坛 targeted, special and public offering businesses were 42.4 billion, 593 billion, 12.8 billion and 85.6 billion, respectively, a change of 17.
6% and 13.
7%, the scale of the equity market was adjusted in 2018, but the size of the company’s public offering fund continued to increase by 14%, showing that the company’s management capabilities have been recognized by investors.
During the reporting period, the company realized income from asset management business23.
800 million, an annual increase of 20.
4%, revenue growth rate significantly exceeds the growth rate of active management. According to the annual report, the company ‘s equity funds have ranked first in the industry in terms of absolute absolute returns and excess returns in the past three years. Therefore, we judge that the returns on active management business performance have increased.
The market share of the brokerage business increased significantly, and the hedging market turnover and commission rate decreased.
Net income from securities brokerage business during the reporting period was 11.
1 billion, down from 11 previously.
7%.In 2018, the market share-based transaction volume decreased by 18%, the company’s share-based transaction volume was 200 million, and the market share was 1.
99%, a year to raise 0.
44 points, the average commission rate in 2018 was 2 / 10,000.
5. The average commission budget for 2017 is 3 / 10,000.
1. Annual decline of 20%.
Both the underwriting scale and income of investment banking business were under pressure.
The company’s equity underwriting scale in 2018 was 71.
3 billion, down from 69 previously.
6%, of which IPO underwriting scale is 18.
800 million, a previous decrease of 52.
8%, the refinancing scale is 52.
4 billion, a previous decrease of 73.
1%; debt underwriting scale is 950.
700 million, down slightly from 0 previously.
At 7%, the scale of equity underwriting was expanded to be mainly affected by the rigorous IPO review and the new refinancing regulations. The length of the underwriting led to a significant change in underwriting income and the company’s investment banking business net income decreased by 14.
The contribution of heavy assets business income declined, and self-operated investment income was significantly changed due to the impact of equity market adjustment.
During the reporting period, the company’s net interest income changed from negative to positive, of which financial asset interest income was 27.
100 million refers to the main reason that the net income can be improved at least.
The decrease in interest income from credit business was mainly due to a 17% decrease in interest income from financial assets purchased under resale agreements. During the reporting period, the company took the initiative to reduce the size of its stock pledge business, which ended at the end of the year to 24.1 billion, down 22 earlier.
The significant change in fair value gains and losses is the initial decrease in income from proprietary operations.
Affected by the adjustment of the equity market, the fair value of tradable financial assets decreased significantly, and the company reported a reduction in the size of its stock positions, from 13.4 billion at the beginning of the year to 6.4 billion at the end of the year.
Maintain “Overweight” rating and raise 19-20 year profit forecast.
Considering that the company’s expected business (asset management + self-employed) has greater flexibility in performance when the market grows, and we have previously raised market indicators such as market turnover and the balance of financial integration, we have raised our profit forecast for 19-20 years.The company’s net profit attributable to its parent was 34 in 19-21.
4 billion, 43.
900 million and 49.
900 million (previously 19-20 forecast was 24.
400 million and 29.
800 million, new forecast for 21 years), PE corresponding to the latest closing price are 23 times, 18 times and 16 times.