Gulisi (603808): Q3 single season replacement affected by EH depot, Ming young outfit
Event overview: The company achieved revenue from Q1 to Q3 201918.
85 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.
57%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
75 ppm, a ten-year increase2.
62%; deduct non-net profit 2.
3.9 billion, down 7 every year.
9%, lower than the growth rate of net profit was mainly due to the same increase of 73 government subsidies.
49% to 24.71 million yuan, investment income increased by 146.
67% to 29.88 million yuan (the liquidation and distribution profit of Fosun Changge Fund and the increase in wealth management income); Q3 single quarter income / net attributable to mothers / non-net deductions gradually decreased by 5.
51% / 20.
48% / 36.
77%, mainly due to the Ed Hardy brand’s recovery of franchisees’ inventory and accrual of asset impairment losses (-28.54 million).
Analysis and Judgment of Revenue Breakdown: (1) Brands: Main Brands / Laurel / VT / Ed Hardy and Ed HardyX / IRO China / IRO (non-China) revenue increased.
22% / 4.
53% / 153.
17% / 181.
53% / 11.
27%, we analyze that most of the EH brand revenue is mainly from the inventory of franchisees. If this effect is excluded, the revenue share is at a numerical level; (2) In terms of endogenous / extension, the company added 21 new stores to 598 in Q3 Home, mainly from the main brand, the number of years of growth from January to September is 5.
65%, which is expected to grow 2 in the same store.
About 8%; (3) In terms of channels, offline (direct sales / franchise revenue increased 15% / -9% respectively) and online growth of 3% / 19%.
The company’s gross profit margin in Q3 was 64.
11%, a decline of 5 per year.
11pct is mainly due to the re-segmentation of the gross margin of the Laurel brand.
At the end of Q3, the account receivable of the company was 3.
3.0 billion, down 13 from the previous month.
1%; inventory is 5.
800,000 yuan, up 9 from the previous month.
49%, mainly due to the EH brand recycling franchisee inventory.
The investment proposal considers factors such as the recovery of EH beyond expectations and the impairment of inventories, and changes 19/20 / 21EPS from 1.
92 yuan down to 1.
63 yuan, a reduction of 7% / 13% / 15%, 杭州桑拿 corresponding to the target price from 20.
27 yuan down to 18.
9 yuan (corresponding to 15 times of 19 years of main business + 20 times of Baiqiu Network), the reduction is 676%, maintain “overweight” rating.
In the short term, we judge that the company is expected to be better next year than this year: (2) EH brand resumes growth after destocking; (3) IRO acquires the remaining equity consolidation and accelerates store opening; (4) Baiqiu E-commerce relies on e-commerce platform resources+ IT capabilities + Online and offline overall solutions + competitive advantages of overseas layout, GMV is expected to continue to grow rapidly.
In the medium term, we will pay attention to the increase in Baiqiu’s estimates after the launch of OneNet.com. In the long term, we will focus on the brand ‘s store space and the increase in store efficiency., More than 200 other international brands.
Risks indicate the uncertainty of IRO filing or approval; potential risks of store opening expectations; high inventory risks; systemic risks.